Oaxaca Update - movement defeated or about to expand?

Reposting this anonymous update from a mailing list. (received 27 Nov, so 2 days old now). It's not 'eye-witness' but 'informed reader' reporting so may not be news to some. But just in case...B

 The past 24 hours have been tumultous ones in Oaxaca.  APPO and its supporters are claiming that six people have been killed, either by the Federal police or by the armed thugs of the local governor, Ulises Ruiz.  Ruiz is claiming a victory over the "vandals" of APPO, and the Federal police have retaken many of the key areas occupied by the protest movement in Oaxaca, including the famous barricade, "Cinco Senores."  Yesterday, protesters burned several government buildings in Oaxaca, including a courthouse (containing many legal records) and the tourism ministry. Cars and buses were also torched.

 Today's edition of the Mexican leftist daily La Jornada has a headline that blares, "Clashes and Repression in Oaxaca." It is a confusing, volatile situation that is hard to get a fix on from this distance.

 Nonetheless, I will to try to give you a summary of the situation from the various pieces of information that I have managed to gather today.

 As you were already aware, yesterday was the date of a "megamarch" called by APPO. It is hard to know how many people turned up for the march. The conservative media is saying that it was around 5,000; other sources place the figure higher. The goal of the marchers was to surround the Federal Police who had occupied the zocalo in Oaxaca since entering the city at the end of October.

 When the protesters reached the zocalo yesterday, the FPP (Federal Police) fired tear gas. A mass of demonstrators (including those called the bazukeros, so-named for the homemade bazookas that they use to shoot fireworks at the cops) fired vollies of projectiles at the cops. The APPO leadership tried to calm the crowd, but they were shouted down. This fact is reported in both La Jornada and another Mexican paper El Universal. The latter paper describes a scene in which the APPO leader Flavio Sosa was told to "shut up" by the crowd he was trying to discourage from fighting the cops. Sosa then declared that the "situation was uncontrollable."

 What ensued would certainly seem to fit such a description of uncontrolled violence. This is when the government buildings were burned, as well as the vehicles. Improvised barricades were erected in the streets near the town center. Unlike the most recent confrontations, however, the police took the offensive, clearing away the barricades and arresting protesters. The papers speak of more than 150 arrests.

 During the night, the last APPO encampment was apparently cleared by the police, and the last barricade ("Cinco Senores", where the most radical elements of the Oaxacan movement had been concentrated) removed.

 Today the local governor, Ulises Ruiz, toured the scenes of yesterday's battles and denounced the "vandals" of APPO, claiming victory over the protest movement.

 At this point, there is no indication of how the movement (either the official leadership of APPO, or the base) intends to respond to the repression unleashed against them.

 The conservative media are playing up the theme of a radical violent minority that is now being repudiated by the good citizens of Oaxaca. This same media is now careful to distinguish between the striking teachers (whom they claim have returned to work--and this is something I have seen confirmed elsewhere) and the protesters in the streets.

 A spokesperson for APPO, Florentine Lopez, was quoted as saying "Our struggle will continue. We're reorganizing in communities all over the state."

 I would guess that a lot depends on whether there is substance behind that statement, and how the rest of Mexico responds to what looks like a wave of repression in Oaxaca. It is interesting that the split noticed previously between the base of the movement and the APPO leadership now looks like a fracture, although it may be covered over in the response to the arrests and killings (which have yet to be confirmed).

 We may be looking at a movement on the way to becoming something larger, or else witnessing a severe defeat.